Russia’s defense minister says that the troops Moscow moved closer to Ukraine and into Crimea will now be reduced in numbers. However, much of their equipment will be left behind, and the danger will remain.
The West has protested the Kremlin’s latest attempt to scare Ukraine, or perhaps to seize more of its territory. A renewed war could involve high casualties, and thus would run against the Kremlin’s preference for lower-risk military actions. But this does not mean Moscow will stay its hand.…
The remainder of this commentary is available at realclearworld.com
William Courtney is an adjunct senior fellow at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation and a former U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, Georgia, and the U.S.-Soviet commission to implement the Threshold Test Ban Treaty. The views expressed are the author’s own.
This commentary originally appeared on RealClearWorld on April 26, 2021. Commentary gives RAND researchers a platform to convey insights based on their professional expertise and often on their peer-reviewed research and analysis.
Will Russia’s Risk-Aversion Keep It Away from Ukraine? is written by William Courtney for www.rand.org